Against Russia, Ukraine Has Few Military Options

Geopolitical Diary Stratfor

 On Tuesday, the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow’s intent to annex Crimea, unmarked soldiers entered a military base in Simferopol, sparking a limited exchange of gunfire in spite of the standing cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The firefight reportedly left one Ukrainian soldier and one of the unmarked soldiers dead. Kiev responded quickly; the Defense Ministry authorized its troops to use deadly force in response to any more incursions on its bases. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the conflict had entered a “military phase.”

But there is very little Ukraine can do militarily. First, its geography works against it. Crimea is an isolated peninsula that connects to mainland Ukraine through a small and easily controllable land bridge. In earlier stages of the Ukraine crisis, Russian troops strategically moved to seize not only this land bridge but also all potential points of resistance within Crimea. Their maneuvering included moves to either occupy or surround Ukrainian military installations, with a focus on sites that could be used for combat, such as air defense sites, a marine battalion, special operations units of the interior guards, an air base and its combat aircraft, and naval ships. Through a combination of Russian actions — sinking ships to act as a blockade, disarming military units, destroying equipment and isolating Ukrainian military personnel — Ukrainian forces have been relegated to scattered bases that are cut off from the mainland.

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

Moreover, Kiev cannot easily assist its troops stationed in Crimea. The military’s state of readiness is poor, and its reliability is in question. Concentrating forces is also difficult, since potential threats lie in all directions. To the east, there is a 1,200-mile border with as many as 60,000 Russian troops actively conducting military exercises. To the north, there is Belarus, a staunch Russian ally that cannot be dismissed. To the west, there is a contingent of 1,500 Russian soldiers — a small but not insignificant force — that provide security assistance to Transdniestria. To the south, there is an expanded Russian military presence in Crimea itself. This forces Ukrainian military planners to look in every direction and puts troops in defensive postures. Any move by Ukraine leaves openings that can be exploited by Russia.

Of course, this does not mean that Ukraine will refrain from military action. However, it does mean that the threats are so potentially costly that the threshold for action is enormously high. It will likely take a more severe incident than the one seen on Tuesday to elicit a physical response from Kiev. (Otherwise, it will take a bolder military move by Russia.) Because Kiev has no hard military support from the West, the government’s best option is to cry foul for international support and quietly withdraw its forces from Crimea, or leave its troops there in hopes that Russia will not expel them so forcibly that it necessitates a Western response. Either way, its options are limited, and Crimea is well on the way to being permanently in the Russian fold.

Read more: Against Russia, Ukraine Has Few Military Options | Stratfor
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19/3/14 | 0 σχόλια | 0 απαντήσεις | 35 εμφανίσεις

Geopolitical Diary Stratfor

 On Tuesday, the same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Moscow’s intent to annex Crimea, unmarked soldiers entered a military base in Simferopol, sparking a limited exchange of gunfire in spite of the standing cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The firefight reportedly left one Ukrainian soldier and one of the unmarked soldiers dead. Kiev responded quickly; the Defense Ministry authorized its troops to use deadly force in response to any more incursions on its bases. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the conflict had entered a “military phase.”

But there is very little Ukraine can do militarily. First, its geography works against it. Crimea is an isolated peninsula that connects to mainland Ukraine through a small and easily controllable land bridge. In earlier stages of the Ukraine crisis, Russian troops strategically moved to seize not only this land bridge but also all potential points of resistance within Crimea. Their maneuvering included moves to either occupy or surround Ukrainian military installations, with a focus on sites that could be used for combat, such as air defense sites, a marine battalion, special operations units of the interior guards, an air base and its combat aircraft, and naval ships. Through a combination of Russian actions — sinking ships to act as a blockade, disarming military units, destroying equipment and isolating Ukrainian military personnel — Ukrainian forces have been relegated to scattered bases that are cut off from the mainland.

What is a Geopolitical Diary? George Friedman explains.

Moreover, Kiev cannot easily assist its troops stationed in Crimea. The military’s state of readiness is poor, and its reliability is in question. Concentrating forces is also difficult, since potential threats lie in all directions. To the east, there is a 1,200-mile border with as many as 60,000 Russian troops actively conducting military exercises. To the north, there is Belarus, a staunch Russian ally that cannot be dismissed. To the west, there is a contingent of 1,500 Russian soldiers — a small but not insignificant force — that provide security assistance to Transdniestria. To the south, there is an expanded Russian military presence in Crimea itself. This forces Ukrainian military planners to look in every direction and puts troops in defensive postures. Any move by Ukraine leaves openings that can be exploited by Russia.

Of course, this does not mean that Ukraine will refrain from military action. However, it does mean that the threats are so potentially costly that the threshold for action is enormously high. It will likely take a more severe incident than the one seen on Tuesday to elicit a physical response from Kiev. (Otherwise, it will take a bolder military move by Russia.) Because Kiev has no hard military support from the West, the government’s best option is to cry foul for international support and quietly withdraw its forces from Crimea, or leave its troops there in hopes that Russia will not expel them so forcibly that it necessitates a Western response. Either way, its options are limited, and Crimea is well on the way to being permanently in the Russian fold.

Read more: Against Russia, Ukraine Has Few Military Options | Stratfor
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